| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|
| Florence arrives before Mar 17 shoot | Medium | Critical | Shoot is Mar 17; membrane sweep Mar 10; due date ~Mar 11. If baby comes, shoot slides 3-5 days. Backup: Mar 20-21. |
| Deck takes longer than planned | Medium | Critical | Junior starts outline Mar 5. If behind by Mar 10, cut scope to 3 core modules for launch, add 2 post-launch. |
| Drew can't build full app by Mar 27 | Medium | High | MVP: assessment + AI Thinking Partner + 1 artifact (Partnership Audit). Digital workbook and Manager Brief can follow in Week 1 post-launch. |
| Video edit timeline too tight | Low | Medium | Maria has 8 days (Mar 17-25). If needed, launch with 3 core videos, add V0 + V6 post-launch. |
| Opus model overloaded during AI coaching | Low | Medium | Sonnet fallback configured. AI Thinking Partner should also have model fallback. |
| Nick can't find pilot enterprise buyers | Low | Medium | Course launches regardless. Pilots are validation, not gating. |